Reuters runs a good piece today on the evolution of OLED technology and how it seems poised to eventually pose a serious threat to LCD flat-panel displays. On the plus side for OLED are its power savings over LCD (as much as 40% more efficient) and its thinner size (no backlighting). On the minus side are its higher cost (nearly twice as expensive as LCD) and its lack of history as a TV technology (up until this year OLED has been confined to car radios, MP3 players and cell phones).
The article doesn't mention it, but OLED would presumably take market share from plasma as well.
If the biggest hurdle a new technology faces is its high cost, that seems to me to be a surmountable challenge. Flat-panel TVs have become quite mainstream and if a new flat-panel technology comes out that uses less power, potentially produces better picture quality and is thinner than anything anyone's ever seen, it will be in demand and prices will fall as demand picks up.
However, OLED still has quite a road to travel before it becomes a serious player in the HDTV landscape.
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